The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills face off in a Week 8 battle between AFC East foes. Cam Newton and the Patriots hit the road to face a stiff test against Josh Allen and the Bills. Buffalo enters with a 5-2 record, while New England has struggled to a 2-4 mark. Kick-off is at 1 p.m. ET in Buffalo.

William Hill lists the Bills as four-point home favorites, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 41 in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds, down five from the opener. Before you make any Bills vs. Patriots picks and NFL predictions, you should see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It’s off to a strong 15-7 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model also enters Week 8 on an incredible 111-72 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Patriots vs. Bills. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NFL lines and trends for Bills vs. Patriots:

  • Patriots vs. Bills spread: Bills -4
  • Patriots vs. Bills over-under: 41 points
  • Patriots vs. Bills money line: Bills -210, Patriots +180
  • NE: Patriots are 2-4 against the spread this season
  • BUF: Over has hit in four of six Bills games this season

Why the Patriots can cover

The Patriots are struggling, but they can find solace in a few strengths. New England ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing offense, producing 155.0 yards per game on the ground, and quarterback Cam Newton is a force in the running game. The former NFL MVP has 244 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns this season, with Newton helping to bolster a 5.0 yards-per-carry average for the Patriots as a team.

Defensively, New England is also steady, including an above-average mark against the pass. The Patriots are allowing only 228.2 yards per game through the air, and New England is tied for third-best in the NFL in averaging 1.33 interceptions per game.

The Patriots also land at No. 3 in the league in net punting average (46.8 yards per punt), and special teams could play a crucial part in a game projected to be decided by a narrow margin.

Why the Bills can cover

The Bills bring a high-powered offense to the table, led by an explosive passing attack. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has 2,018 passing yards already this season with 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions. He ranks fourth in the NFL in both passing yards and touchdowns, and is also a threat on the ground, with 1,345 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns in only 35 career games.

Buffalo is also elite at moving the chains on offense, converting 52.4 percent of third-down opportunities. Defensively, Buffalo has regressed from its strong form in 2019, but this is a favorable matchup. The Patriots are last in the NFL in both passing touchdowns (three) and interceptions thrown (11), while New England also ranks in a tie for last in quarterback rating (65.1) and in the bottom five in passing offense (197.2 yards per game).

How to make Patriots vs. Bills picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, with both teams projected to average more than 4.5 yards per carry. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see all of the model’s Patriots vs. Bills picks here.

So who wins Patriots vs. Bills? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Patriots vs. Bills spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 111-72 roll on NFL picks, and find out.

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