It’s hard to believe that we’re already in Week 7 of the regular season. It feels like I blinked in August and as soon as I opened my eyes pumpkin spice lattes, jack-o’-lanterns wearing masks, and that brisk northeast breeze hit me in the face like a ton of bricks. Over that flash, however, we’ve seen a ton of great football and that is expected to continue this week with some solid matchups, including the Buccaneers heading to Las Vegas, Jimmy Garoppolo squaring off against his former Patriots squad, and a battle of the unbeatens between Tennessee and Pittsburgh. These were the types of matchups that we were dreaming of over the summer and now we have them in spades. 

On top of simply enjoying the action this weekend, we’re going to take a look at every matchup on the Week 7 slate and figure out who I like best from a betting perspective. Before we jump into that, we’ll talk briefly about a rough Week 6 by yours truly (6-8 ATS, 8-6 SU). Two picks that I misread were New England and the L.A. Rams. I had both teams surrendering points and it turned around to be a SU loss for both. Yikes. We did recover, however, by leaning on the talent of the Chiefs, who covered as a road favorite against Buffalo, and Pittsburgh to keep us at a respectable level. Now, we’re ready to rebound and have a very strong Week 7, starting with my locks of the week. 

All odds via WIlliam Hill Sportsbook.

Locks of the Week

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia

Thursday, Oct. 22, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox/NFLN)
Point spread: Philadelphia -4

Philadelphia’s offense has been in shambles for the bulk of 2020 and Carson Wentz is now going into this matchup with New York likely without two more key weapons in running back Miles Sanders and tight end Zach Ertz. While the Giants defense has a reputation of being a bottom-tier unit, they are actually in the middle of the road, ranking 17th in the league in DVOA. Not great, but not terrible. That should be enough against this Eagles offense. Meanwhile, the Giants are 3-0 ATS on the road this season and have covered in six straight. Over the last three seasons, Carson Wentz has covered just 23% of his games as a home favorite, which is the worst coverage percentage among quarterbacks who qualify. 

Pick: N.Y. Giants and the points
Score prediction: Philadelphia 23, N.Y. Giants 21

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Green Bay at Houston

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread: Green Bay -3.5

I expect a strong bounce back from the Packers after a blowout loss to the Buccaneers in Tampa. I don’t foresee Aaron Rodgers turning the ball over twice once again, especially against a Houston defense that ranks 27th in the league in DVOA. Aaron Jones should also find success against a Houston run defense that is allowing 5.9 yards per rush. Green Bay is 9-0 ATS following their last nine ATS losses and Deshaun Watson has struggled to keep his team in games this year. The Texans quarterback is 0-4 ATS in 2020 as an underdog. 

Pick: Green Bay -3.5
Score prediction: Green Bay 30, Houston 17

Seattle at Arizona

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox) 
Point spread: Seattle -3.5

The Cardinals were able to beat up on Andy Dalton and the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football, but are looking at a much different test in the undefeated Sehawks this weekend. Seattle is coming off their bye in Week 6, which is a spot that Pete Carroll typically thrives in. Over the last three seasons, Seattle has covered coming out of the bye. Russell Wilson should continue to chart his MVP course and Ezekiel Elliott isn’t in the Seahawks backfield to give Arizona the ball two times to begin the game.  

Pick: Seattle -3.5
Score prediction:
Seattle 27, Arizona 21

Pittsburgh at Tennessee 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) 
Point spread: Pittsburgh -2

This is arguably the biggest game on the Week 7 slate as only one team between the Titans and Steelers will come out of Week 7 still unbeaten on the year. While losing star tackle Taylor Lewan is certainly a massive blow to Tennessee, I still like this Titans in this spot. Derrick Henry should continue his beastly pace and should find even more success on the ground with Steelers linebacker Devin Bush out for the year. Ryan Tannehill’s offense is also averaging 42 points per game since getting over the COVID-19 outbreak and are 13-2 with him as the starter in the regular season. Slowing down Big Ben and rookie star Chase Claypool will be tough, but Tannehill has enough horses to go toe-to-toe with them if need be. I also don’t hate Tennessee moneyline here at +110. 

Pick: Tennessee and the points
Score prediction: Tennessee 24, Pittsburgh 21

Kansas City at Denver

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Kansas City -10

Denver is coming off an upset win over the Patriots in New England, but that game may have spoken more to poor play by the Patriots offense than anything else. Kansas City, meanwhile, had a nine-point cushion in their win over the Bills on Monday in a game that felt largely close. This game has the feeling of a Patrick Mahomes track meet that features the typical barrage of points that we’ve grown accustomed to with the Chiefs over the last few years. K.C. has covered six-straight games at Denver and is 12-2-1 ATS in its last 15 games (including postseason).

Pick: Kansas City -10
Point spread: Kansas City 30, Denver 17

Rest of the Bunch 

Buffalo (-13) at N.Y. Jets
Pick
: Buffalo -13
Score prediction: Buffalo 27, N.Y. Jets 10

Detroit at Atlanta (-2)
Pick: Detroit and the points
Score prediction: Detroit 27, Atlanta 24

Cleveland (-3) at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati and the points
Score prediction: Cleveland 23, Cincinnati 21

Dallas at Washington
Pick: Washington
Score prediction: Washington 17, Dallas 14

Carolina at New Orleans (-7.5) 
Pick: Carolina +7.5 
Score prediction: New Orleans 28, Carolina 24

San Francisco at New England (-2.5) 
Pick: San Francisco and the points
Score prediction: San Francisco 24, New England 17

Jacksonville at L.A. Chargers (-7.5)
Pick: L.A. Chargers -7.5 
Score prediction: L.A. Chargers 24, Jacksonville 13

Tampa Bay (-3) at Las Vegas
Pick: Tampa Bay -3
Score prediction: Tampa Bay 21, Las Vegas 16

Chicago at L.A. Rams (-5.5) 
Pick: Chicago and the points
Score prediction: L.A. Rams 21, Chicago 17

Picks Record

Against the spread in Week 6: 6-8
ATS overall: 47-42-1

Straight up in Week 6: 8-6
SU overall: 60-30-1

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