The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will attempt to bounce back from their first losses of the season when they meet on Monday evening. The Chiefs (4-1) have won three of their past four matchups against the Bills (4-1). This is Kansas City’s first visit to Buffalo since 2014. The Chiefs won that meeting, 17-13. Buffalo won the most recent matchup between the teams in 2017, 16-10. Kansas City leads the all-time series, 24-20-1. 

Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a 3.5 point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Bills odds from William Hill, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 57.5. Before making any Bills vs. Chiefs picks, be sure to see the latest NFL predictions for Monday from SportsLine NFL expert Larry Hartstein, given his epic run picking Kansas City games.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. Last year, he went 58-39 on his against-the-spread NFL picks, giving his followers a profit of more than $1,500.

He also has a sharp eye for the Chiefs’ tendencies, going 9-1 in his last 10 spread picks for or against Kansas City. Last week, when the Chiefs laid 13 at home to the Raiders, Hartstein was all over Las Vegas. The result? Raiders 40, K.C. 32. Anyone who has consistently followed Hartstein is way up.  

Now, he has dialed in on Chiefs vs. Bills from every angle and released a confident against-the-spread pick. You can only see it here. Here are the NFL odds and betting trends for Bills vs. Chiefs:

  • Chiefs vs. Bills spread: Kansas City -3.5
  • Chiefs vs. Bills  over-under: 57.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. Bills money line: Kansas City -190, Buffalo +170
  • KC: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads all rookies with 344 rushing yards. 
  • BUF: WR Stefon Diggs is second in the NFL with 509 receiving yards. 

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City will look to get back to its winning ways after the Raiders dealt the Chiefs a 40-32 loss in Week 5. It was Kansas City’s first defeat since Nov. 10 2019, and snapped a 13-game winning streak that included last season’s playoffs. Patrick Mahomes passed for 340 yards and two TDs and rushed for TD last week, becoming the fourth QB in NFL history with 20 games with 300-plus passing yards in his first four seasons. 

Tyreek Hill had 78 receiving yards in Week 5. He has a TD catch in four of his past five games. Hill has 75-plus receiving yards in three of his past four games. Travis Kelce  had eight catches for 108 yards and a TD in Week 5, his 20th career game with 100-plus receiving yards. He has five-plus catches and 50-plus receiving yards in four of his past five games. 

Bashaud Breeland had an interception in his season debut last week. Frank Clark has a sack in two of his past three games. He is aiming for a sack in his fifth game in row vs. an AFC East team. 

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo wants to put a 42-16 thrashing by Tennessee in the rear-view mirror and regain the form that has put them at the top of the AFC East standings. Josh Allen ranks second in the NFL in passing yards (1,589) and TD passes (14). Stefon Diggs led the team with 10 catches for 106 yards in Week 5, his fifth career game with 10-plus catches and 100-plus receiving yards. He has 100-plus receiving yards in three of his past four games. 

Devin Singletary has 75-plus scrimmage yards in three of his past four games. He has 546 scrimmage yards (109.2 per game) in his past five games at home. Cole Beasley has five catches in three of his past four. He had two TDs in only career game vs. Kansas City in 2017. Josh Norman had seven tackles last week. He had an interception in each of his past two Monday games. Jordan Poyer ranks second among safeties with 40 tackles.

How to make Monday NFL picks on Chiefs vs. Bills

Now, Hartstein has broken down Chiefs vs. Bills from every angle. We can tell you he’s leaning over on the total, but his much stronger play is on the spread. He’s found a critical x-factor that makes one side of the spread hit hard on Monday. He’s only sharing it at SportsLine. 

Who wins Bills vs. Chiefs on Monday? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Chiefs spread you should jump on Monday, all from the K.C. expert who has gone 9-1 in his last 10 picks involving the Chiefs, and find out. 


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