The Tampa Bay Rays get another chance to close out their best-of-seven American League Championship Series when they take on the Houston Astros in Game 6 on Friday. Houston stayed alive when shortstop Carlos Correa clubbed a solo home run in the bottom of the ninth in Game 5 for a 4-3 victory on Thursday. Tampa Bay won the first three games of the series, but the Astros have been able to stave off elimination the past two days. Tampa Bay is looking for its first World Series appearance since 2008, when it lost a five-game series to the Philadelphia Phillies.

First pitch from Petco Park in San Diego is set for 6:07 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay is the -135 favorite on the money line in the latest Astros vs. Rays odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total runs scored is eight. Before making any Rays vs. Astros picks, check out the latest MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every pitch 10,000 times, returned more than $1,400 on its top-rated MLB money-line and run-line picks in 2019, and anyone who followed it saw huge rewards. It’s off to a profitable start in the 2020 MLB Playoffs, including hitting all three top-rated money-line MLB picks during the first week of the postseason.

Now, the model has dialed in on Astros vs. Rays. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the MLB odds from William Hill and trends for Rays vs. Astros:

  • Astros vs. Rays money line: Houston +125, Tampa Bay -135
  • Astros vs. Rays run line: Houston +1.5
  • Astros vs. Rays over-under: 8 runs 
  • HOU: Is second in MLB in team batting average (.270) during the postseason and was 20th in the regular season (.240)
  • TB: LF Randy Arozarena is sixth in MLB with a 1.357 OPS through 12 playoff games.

Why you should back the Rays

Tampa Bay will turn to Game 1 starter Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24 ERA) to make his second start of the series. The left-hander limited the Astros to one run on six hits through five innings in the opener. He walked two and struck out two. In six career starts against Houston, Snell is 2-2 with a 4.73 ERA. He has allowed 17 earned runs, eight homers, 16 walks and 31 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings against them.

Offensively, Arozarena has paced the Rays’ offense, and is hitting .417 in 12 postseason games with 20 hits in 48 at-bats, including a home run in Thursday’s game. He is 8-for-21 (.381) in the series with a double, three homers and four RBIs. He hit a two-run home run off Zack Greinke in Game 4. In 42 career regular season games over two seasons, Arozarena is a .286 hitter with three doubles and eight homers.

Why you should back the Astros

Houston is expected to bring back left-handed Game 1 starter Framber Valdez (5-3, 3.57 ERA) to pitch Game 6. He was solid in the opener, allowing just two earned runs in six innings with four walks and eight strikeouts. In three postseason games this season, he has allowed just four earned runs over 18 innings (2.00 ERA), allowing 11 hits, seven walks and striking out 17. He has allowed three home runs. For his career, he is 13-11 in 23 starts with 84 walks and 178 strikeouts and a 4.19 ERA.

Correa, meanwhile, leads the Astros at the plate with a .342 postseason batting average. After hitting five home runs during the 60-game season, he already has six through 11 playoff games. He drove in 25 runs in the regular season and has 14 RBIs in the postseason. In 17 career games against the Rays, he has four doubles, three homers and six RBIs.

How to make Astros vs. Rays picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, as the simulation says the starting pitchers from both teams will combine to allow nearly five runs in 11-plus combined innings, and it also says one side of the money line has the value. Head to SportsLine now to see the pick. 

So who wins Rays vs. Astros? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side to jump on, all from the advanced model that returned over $1,400 on MLB picks last year and got off to a profitable start in the 2020 MLB Playoffs.


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