The Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat face off in Game 5 of the 2020 NBA Finals on Friday evening. The Lakers, leading 3-1 in the series, will look to claim a championship with a victory, while the Heat are looking to avoid elimination. Goran Dragic (foot) is listed as doubtful to play for Miami. Bam Adebayo has been removed from Miami’s injury report after returning from a neck injury in Game 4. 

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET in Orlando. William Hill lists Los Angeles as a seven-point favorite in the latest Lakers vs. Heat odds. The over-under, or total number of points expected, is 216. Before finalizing any Heat vs. Lakers picks for Game 5, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the 2020 NBA Finals on a blistering 61-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,500 on those picks alone. It’s also a sizzling 11-3 on top-rated picks since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Heat. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Heat vs. Lakers:

  • Lakers vs. Heat spread: Lakers -7
  • Lakers vs. Heat over-under: 216 points
  • Lakers vs. Heat money line: Lakers -325, Heat +265
  • LAL: The Lakers are 4-4-2 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • MIA: The Heat are 6-3-1 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Lakers can cover

As usual, the Lakers have been led by LeBron James and Anthony Davis during this series, with both playing like superstars. James is averaging 27.8 points, 11.0 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game, with Davis adding 25.8 points, 9.3 rebounds and elite defense. In addition to an offense that is scoring 1.168 points per possession against Miami, the Lakers boast a 67.9 percent assist rate and they are generating 1.89 assists for every turnover against the Heat. 

On the offensive glass, Los Angeles is using its size advantage effectively, grabbing 32.1 percent of available rebounds and easily outscoring the Heat on second-chance opportunities. The Lakers are also a potent defensive team, ranking third in steals per game (8.1) and third in blocks per game (5.4) among playoff teams. Los Angeles is allowing Miami to generate only 6.8 fast-break points per game and, when the Lakers get their defense set, it makes life difficult on any opposing offense.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami is one of the best offensive teams in the NBA, scoring 1.13 points per possession in the postseason. The Heat led the NBA in free-throw rate during the regular season, and they rank second in the same stat during the playoffs, getting to the charity stripe at will. Miami is also a tremendous passing team, with the best assist rate (65.6 percent) among teams that advanced beyond the first round of the playoffs, and the Heat take care of the ball effectively. 

The Heat have the best assist-to-turnover ratio (1.9-to-1) in the 2020 NBA Playoffs, and they are turning the ball over on only 12.1 percent of possessions against the Lakers. Defensively, Miami must rebound the ball better in Game 5, but the Heat are strong on the perimeter, ranking in the top five among playoff teams in shooting efficiency allowed. The return of Adebayo is also critical, as he is an elite defender that can manage the game in the paint while also patrolling the perimeter with his athleticism and versatility.

How to make Lakers vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total with with Kyle Kuzma and Adebayo projected to fall short of their season-long scoring averages. It also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Heat vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lakers vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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