Another week, another round of picks from yours truly. With a quarter of the way through the 2020 regular season, we’re sitting in the green with our week-to-week selections, both on the moneyline and against the spread. Week 4 threw a number of curveballs at us as Steelers-Titans was postponed and Patriots-Chiefs was rescheduled due to COVID-19 concerns and it appears that may be the case again in Week 5 with a number of positive tests popping up around the league, including more from Tennessee along with Patriots star corner Stephon Gilmore. Nevertheless, we’ll wage forward and add those contests to the board once we gain more clarity

Week 4 was a solid bounceback from a less-than-stellar Week 3, getting in the green both ATS and SU. The best selection from the previous week was not only taking the seven points with Philadelphia but also taking them straight up against San Francisco on Sunday night. The big regret was missing on the offensive explosion the Browns laid down on Dallas. 

As we turn the page to Week 5, here’s a look at who I like for this weekend’s slate, including my five Locks of the Week. All odds are via William Hill Sportsbook. 

Locks of the Week

Minnesota at Seattle

8:20 p.m. (NBC) 
Point spread: Seattle -7 

The Seahawks have not only enjoyed a perfect start to the season, but Pete Carroll’s club has also gone 4-0 ATS. The Seahawks have never gone 5-0 (both SU and ATS) in franchise history, but will in 2020. Seattle’s offense is simply too much for a Minnesota pass defense, which has allowed the most yards per completion (12.4) in the league through the first month, to handle on Sunday night. While the Seahawks’ defense isn’t anything to write home about in their own right, Kirk Cousins isn’t exactly a master at covering the spread against elite opponents. Since joining the Vikings in 2018, Cousins has the third-worst cover percentage among quarterbacks (min. five starts) against teams with a winning record. 

Pick: Seattle -7
Score prediction: Seattle 33, Minnesota 24

Tampa Bay at Chicago 

Thursday, Oct. 8 at 8:20 p.m. ET (FOX/NFLN)
Point spread: Tampa Bay -4.5

Don’t look now, but Tom Brady is starting to get hot. The veteran quarterback exploded in Week 4 with a five-touchdown performance against the Chargers en-route to a Tampa Bay win. While it’s never easy to have a quick turnaround on Thursday night, Brady has historically performed well in this setting, owning an 8-0-1 ATS record (9-0 SU) on short rest (five days or fewer between games) since 2016. While this is a matchup between two 3-1 clubs, I still am not a believer in what Chicago is putting together offensively, even with the quarterback change with Nick Foles, who is 0-5 as a starter dating back to last season. 

Pick: Tampa Bay -4.5
Score prediction: Tampa Bay 24, Chicago 10

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Philadelphia at Pittsburgh 

1 p.m. ET (FOX) 
Point spread: Pittsburgh -7

I was on the right side with Philadelphia last week, taking the points and even predicting a SU win over San Francisco, but I’m fading them this week. Carson Wentz still looks lost under center and the offensive play-calling under Doug Pederson in that win over the Niners was questionable at best. While they were able to get away with it against a hobbled 49ers club, they won’t be so fortunate against a well-rested Steelers club, who had their Week 4 game with the Titans postponed. Since 2018, the Steelers are 8-1 ATS vs. the NFC. 

Pick: Pittsburgh -7
Score prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Eagles 13

Jacksonville at Houston

1 p.m. ET (CBS) 
Point spread: Houston -6

It’s a new era in Houston after the Texans fired head coach/GM Bill O’Brien following an 0-4 start to begin the year. While O’Brien may be out the door, I don’t expect Houston’s issues to magically disappear. Over the last five seasons, teams that have gone through a midseason firing are 2-6 ATS in their next contest. When you couple that with winless teams owning an 0-4 ATS record when favored heading into their fifth game or later, history is not on Houston’s side. Meanwhile, Garnder Minshew and the Jaguars have been fantastic as underdogs throughout the young quarterback’s tenure. He is 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 4+ points, including a 2-0 record this year. I also would look at the Jacksonville moneyline at +225.

Pick: Jacksonville and the points
Score prediction: Jacksonville 21, Texans 17

Arizona at N.Y. Jets 

1 p.m. ET (FOX) 
Point spread: Arizona -7

I’ve been burned by Arizona a couple of times this year, but this opportunity against New York is too juicy to pass up when you’re only looking to clear by a touchdown. The Jets have been arguably the worst team in the league this year and Sam Darnold (shoulder) possibly not playing this week only adds to those issues. New York, who opened Week 4 on Thursday Night Football, also doesn’t have a great record on extended rest, going 1-8 ATS since 2017. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray is 6-2-2 ATS on the road in his career, including a 4-1 ATS road record in the Eastern Time Zone. 

Pick: Arizona -7
Score prediction: Arizona 27, New York 13

Rest of the bunch

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-13) 
Pick: Cincinnati and the points 
Score prediction: Baltimore 27, Cincinnati 17

L.A. Rams (-7.5) at Washington 
Pick: L.A. Rams -7.5
Score prediction: L.A. Rams 24, Washington 14

Las Vegas at Kansas City (-13) 
Pick: Kansas City -13
Score prediction: Kansas City 28, Las Vegas 13

Carolina at Atlanta (-2) 
Pick: Carolina and the points
Score prediction: Carolina 30, Atlanta 21

Indianapolis (-1.5) at Cleveland 
Pick: Indianapolis -1.5 
Score prediction: Indianapolis 17, Cleveland 14

N.Y. Giants at Dallas (-9.5) 
Pick: N.Y. Giants and the points
Score prediction: Dallas 23, N.Y. Giants 17

L.A. Chargers at New Orleans (7.5)
Pick: L.A. Chargers and the points
Score prediction: New Orleans 20, L.A. Chargers 17

Picks Record

Against the spread in Week 4: 9-6
ATS overall: 34-28-1

Straight up in Week 4: 11-4
SU overall: 42-20-1

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