The Tampa Bay Lightning were less than seven minutes away from taking victory laps with the Stanley Cup hoisted above their heads for the second time in franchise history over the weekend. However, the Dallas Stars posted a 3-2 victory in double overtime. They hope to send the 2020 Stanley Cup Final to a decisive seventh game when they take on the Lightning in Game 6 on Monday. Opening faceoff from Rogers Place in Edmonton is set for 8 p.m. ET.

Joe Pavelski scored with 6:45 remaining in the third period of Game 5 to keep alive Dallas’ hopes, while fellow veteran Corey Perry completed his two-goal performance at 9:23 of the second overtime, preventing Tampa Bay from celebrating. The Lightning had won three consecutive contests after suffering a surprising defeat in the series-opener. Tampa Bay is the -160 favorite in the latest Lightning vs. Stars odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total goals scored is five. Before making any Stars vs. Lightning picks, check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, taking into account factors like current form, individual matchups, injuries and short- and long-term trends when making NHL picks. The model seeks the best values on the money line, puck line and total.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lightning vs. Stars. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the latest NHL odds from William Hill and trends for Stars vs. Lightning: 

  • Lightning vs. Stars money line: Tampa Bay -160, Dallas +140
  • Lightning vs. Stars puck line: Tampa Bay -1.5
  • Lightning vs. Stars over-under: 5 goals
  • TB: Lightning are 45-8 in their last 53 games after scoring fewer than three goals in their previous contest
  • DAL: Stars are 4-0 in the last four finales of stretches during which they play four games in six days

Why you should back the Lightning

Tampa Bay has yet to lose back-to-back games this postseason, going 5-0 following a setback. Despite Saturday’s defeat, the Lightning have had success in close playoff contests, as they are 12-2 in one-goal games and 6-2 in overtime. Scoring first has made quite a difference for Tampa Bay, which is 11-1 when netting the first tally of the game in these playoffs.

Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Ondrej Palat all enter Monday’s contest with four-game point streaks. Kucherov, who leads the NHL in scoring this postseason with 33 points, has recorded a goal and six assists during his run, while Point has netted four tallies and set up three others. With his third goal and fifth point during his streak on Saturday, Palat became the fourth player ever to register 60 postseason points with the team.

Why you should back the Stars

Pavelski and Perry have been elevating their play, as the former knows this may be his final shot at winning a Stanley Cup while the latter seeks a second championship before calling it a career. Both have scored three goals in the last two contests, with Perry’s surge coming after a 19-game drought. The 35-year-old, who won the Stanley Cup with Anaheim in 2007, has netted eight tallies in 18 career playoff games when facing elimination.

With 13 goals this postseason, Pavelski is tied with Point for the league lead. The 36-year-old’s total is the third-most in a single playoff year in franchise history behind Steve Payne and DIno Ciccarelli, who recorded 17 and 14, respectively, in 1981. It’s also the most ever by an NHL player over the age of 35. Pavelski also is riding a four-game point streak during which he has notched four tallies and an assist.

How to make Lightning vs. Stars picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with the simulation suggesting Tampa Bay’s Kucherov and Dallas’ Denis Gurianov have the best chance to score a goal for their teams. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Stars vs. Lightning? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lightning vs. Stars money line to jump on Monday, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times, and find out. 

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