It’s a showdown of in-state rivals when the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football. Both teams are in rebuilding mode, but the Jaguars’ offense has shown a spark behind quarterback Gardner Minshew. The Dolphins are led by the ageless Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is holding down the fort until first-round pick Tua Tagovailoa is ready. Jacksonville (1-1) lost a hard-fought battle with Tennessee in Week 2, falling 33-30 after rallying to tie it late. Miami (0-2) also fought to the end last week, taking a 20-17 lead against Buffalo before the Bills stormed back for a 31-28 victory. 

Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field. The Jaguars are three-point favorites in the latest Dolphins vs. Jaguars odds at William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is 47.5. Before locking in any Jaguars vs. Dolphins picks or NFL predictions, make sure you see what SportsLine’s all-time No. 1 NFL expert, Mike Tierney, has to say. 

A national sportswriter whose work appears in the New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. He prefers to evaluate each game from the underdog’s point of view and has used that philosophy to dominate the NFL, going 66-44 against the spread in 2019 and 63-46 in 2018.

Tierney entered the 2020 season with a 282-222 record at SportsLine (2016-19) on all NFL picks, returning $3,704 to $100 players, is 10-3 in his past 13 NFL against-the-spread picks and hit all six of his Week 1 picks. He also has had a sharp eye for the tendencies of both the Dolphins and Jaguars, posting a stunning 19-7 record on against the spread picks for or against Miami and Jacksonville. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Tierney has locked in on Jaguars vs. Dolphins from every angle and released a confident against the spread pick. You can visit SportsLine now to see it. Here are several NFL betting lines from William Hill and trends for Dolphins vs. Jaguars:

  • Dolphins vs. Jaguars spread: Jacksonville -3
  • Dolphins vs. Jaguars over-under: 47.5
  • Dolphins vs. Jaguars money line: Miami +140, Jacksonville -160
  • MIA: WR DeVante Parker topped 70 yards receiving in six of the last seven games of 2019.
  • JAX: Scored touchdowns on six of seven trips to the red zone this season.

Why the Jaguars can cover

Jacksonville is 8-2 against the spread in its past 10 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in its previous game. The Jaguars ran for 165 in the loss to the Titans, led by undrafted rookie James Robinson’s 102 on just 16 carries. Rookie receiver Laviska Shenault Jr. also got in on the action, running five times for 37 yards. The rookies combined for 192 total yards, averaging 7.1 yards per play, in Sunday’s game.

The Jaguars are 4-0 against the spread in their last four against AFC teams, and Minshew could have a field day against a Miami defense that allowed Josh Allen to throw for 417 yards and four TDs last week.

Minshew has tossed six TD passes this season and has a reliable target in DJ Chark, while fellow receiver Keelan Cole has 11 catches and two TDs through two weeks. The Jags’ defense is led by linebacker Myles Jack, who has 22 tackles and a sack.

Why the Dolphins can cover

Miami is 6-2 against the spread in its last eight after putting up more than 350 total yards in the previous game, and the veteran Fitzpatrick threw for 328 and two touchdowns against Buffalo. The Dolphins have struggled to run the ball, but there are capable backs in Jordan Howard, Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida. Gaskin and Breida have combined for 145 yards on 28 carries, while Gaskin, a 2019 seventh-round pick, also has 10 catches for 62 yards.

The Dolphins have covered the spread in four of their past five against AFC teams, and the team has solid options for whomever is throwing the ball. Tight end Mike Gesicki has team highs of 11 catches and 160 yards, while Parker and Isaiah Ford each have a combined 18 catches for 189.

How to make Dolphins vs. Jaguars picks

Tierney is leaning under on the total, and he’s also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He’s sharing it only at SportsLine. 

Who wins Jaguars vs. Dolphins on Thursday Night Football? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Jaguars spread you should jump on, all from the NFL expert who’s brought in over $3,700 to $100 players, and find out.

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