Joe Burrow tasted defeat for the first time in nearly two years after the Cincinnati Bengals dropped their 2020 NFL season-opener to the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday. Burrow hadn’t lost since November 2018, when LSU was beaten 74-72 by Texas A&M in seven overtimes. The 2019 Heisman Trophy recipient will attempt to record his first NFL victory when the Bengals visit the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football to open Week 2. Kickoff from FirstEnergy Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET.

Burrow, who guided LSU to a 15-0 record and the national championship last season, ran for a touchdown but was unable to get Cincinnati into the end zone again in its loss. Cleveland is a six-point favorite in the latest Browns vs. Bengals odds from William Hill, while the over-under is 43.5. Before locking in any Bengals vs. Browns picks, make sure you see the latest Thursday Night Football predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,400 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five years ago. It went a perfect 4-0 on top-rated NFL picks in Week 1, including calling easy covers by the Ravens and Bills. The model enters Week 2 on an incredible 100-65 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Browns vs. Bengals. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds from William Hill and trends for Bengals vs. Browns:

  • Browns vs. Bengals spread: Cleveland -6
  • Browns vs. Bengals over-under: 43.5 points
  • Browns vs. Bengals money line: Cleveland -250, Cincinnati +210
  • CLE: Browns have failed to cover five straight after yielding more than 30 points in their previous game
  • CIN: Bengals are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games at Cleveland

Why the Browns can cover

Cleveland has won three of its last four meetings with Cincinnati, all with Baker Mayfield under center. The 25-year-old Oklahoma product’s 10 touchdown tosses against the Bengals are his most versus any opponent, while his 1,013 passing yards in those four contests are his second-most against any team (1,441 vs. Baltimore). Mayfield performed well in his previous two appearances on Thursday Night Football, throwing for two TDs and running for another while posting a 95.5 quarterback rating. 

Odell Beckham Jr. has faced the Bengals three times in his career, reeling in 15 catches for 217 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The 27-year-old had one of the most productive games of his first season with Cleveland in the 2019 finale against Cincinnati, as he had 81 yards and a TD on just three receptions. Beckham also had only three catches versus Baltimore on Sunday but was targeted 10 times, something that happened just six times in 16 contests last year.

Why the Bengals can cover

Burrow completed nearly 64 percent of his pass attempts in his NFL debut last Sunday, going 23-of-36, but amassed only 193 yards and didn’t have a touchdown toss. The 23-year-old was a threat on the ground, however, as he was Cincinnati’s second-leading rusher with 46 yards, 23 of which came on a scoring run in the first quarter.

He became the second quarterback since 1970 to rush for at least 40 yards and a TD in his first NFL contest, joining Cleveland’s Kevin Hogan (104 yards, TD in 2016).

A.J. Green returned to action in the opener after missing the entire 2019 season with torn ligaments in his ankle and grabbed five catches for 51 yards. The 32-year-old Georgia product has recorded 8,958 yards since 2011, the fourth-highest total in the league during that span. Green has 62 receptions for 953 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 career games against Cleveland.

How to make Browns vs. Bengals picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total. In fact, it says Burrow and Mayfield each record over 250 passing yards and combine to throw more than three touchdowns. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Browns vs. Bengals on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread cashes well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bengals vs. Browns spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,400 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.

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