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No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick and 2019 Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow makes his NFL debut on Sunday when he starts for the Cincinnati Bengals against the Los Angeles Chargers. The 23-year-old Burrow is coming off a historic season at LSU in which he passed for an NCAA-record 60 touchdowns, won the Heisman Trophy and led the Tigers to the College Football Playoff National Championship. William Hill has set the Over-Under for Burrow’s passing yards at 238.5, but which side should you back with your NFL player props?. Before you make any NFL prop picks, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five years ago. It also enters the 2020 NFL season on an incredible 96-65 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up and consistently beaten NFL odds. Now, it’s honed in on Week 1 NFL picks and is only releasing its top player props here.

Top NFL player prop bets for Week 1

After simulating every Week 1 game 10,000 times, the model loves Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (-110) to have more than 1.5 passing touchdowns. Jackson averaged 2.3 touchdown passes per game last season. In two games against the Browns last year, he threw three touchdowns in each. 

This season, the Ravens are more committed to throwing more deep passes. In addition, Jackson should have a healthy Marquise Brown, who had 46 catches for 584 yards and seven touchdowns last year despite dealing with injuries. The projection model has Jackson averaging 2.2 touchdown passes in its 10,000 simulations of Sunday’s game, clearing the over by almost a full TD.

How to make NFL prop picks for Week 1

The model is also high on a huge 20-1 long shot to score the first touchdown in one of the Week 1 games. The model calls this player the “best value” in his game. You need to see the model’s analysis before making any Week 1 prop bets of your own. 

What +2000 long shot provides great value to score the first touchdown in his game? And which other top prop bets does the model love for Week 1? Visit SportsLine now to see the top Week 1 NFL prop bets, all from the projection model that is up $7,000 on NFL picks.

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