After just two seasons as a regular starter, Patrick Mahomes appears to be more highly-decorated than most quarterbacks in the NFL. In 2018, he was named the NFL MVP and Offensive Player of the Year after leading the league in touchdown passes with 50. For an encore, in his third pro campaign, he took the Chiefs to their first Super Bowl title in 50 years. Mahomes will try to add to his already-impressive trophy collection when Kansas City hosts the Houston Texans in the 2020 NFL Kickoff at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday. Kickoff for Chiefs vs. Texans is set for 8:20 p.m. ET.

Mahomes will face off against another top AFC passer, Deshaun Watson, who is looking to avenge a 20-point loss to the Chiefs in last year’s Divisional Playoff game. A two-time Pro Bowler, Watson is the fastest player in NFL history to 6,500-plus passing yards and 500-plus rushing yards, having accomplished the feat in his first 26 career games. Kansas City is a nine-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Texans odds from William Hill after the spread opened at 10, while the over-under for total points scored is 54. Before locking in any Texans vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you see the NFL predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five years ago. It also enters the 2020 NFL season on an incredible 96-65 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Texans. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds from William Hill and trends for Texans vs. Chiefs:

  • Chiefs vs. Texans spread: Kansas City -9
  • Chiefs vs. Texans over-under: 54 points
  • Chiefs vs. Texans money line: Kansas City -450, Houston +350
  • KC: Chiefs have won nine straight since losing to Tennessee in Week 10 last season
  • HOU: QB Deshaun Watson has thrown 26 touchdown passes each of the last two years

Why the Chiefs can cover

Mahomes and 17 other starters return from the squad that won Super Bowl LIV. Tight end Travis caught 97 passes for 1,229 yards as he soared past the 95-reception and 1,200-yard markers for the second consecutive season. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill averaged 14.8 yards per catch and caught seven TD passes in just 12 games. Postseason hero Sammy Watkins averaged 20.6 yards per catch in the playoffs.

Youth can make the Chiefs offense seem even more dangerous in 2020. Second-year wideout Mecole Hardman caught six TD passes and averaged 20.7 yards per catch last season. Highly-touted 2020 first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire will also make his NFL debut against the Texans. The former LSU Tiger was a consensus All-SEC first team selection in 2019 after rushing for 1,414 yards and 16 TDs. He also caught 55 passes for 453 yards for the national champions.

Why the Texans can cover

Houston squandered a 24-point lead and allowed 41 consecutive points in the postseason loss to Kansas City. The team reacted by parting with their biggest superstar. Hopkins had five 1,100-plus yard seasons and three campaigns with 11 or more TD catches as a Texan. Houston also parted ways with 1,000-yard rusher Carlos Hyde and key nose tackle D.J. Reader. 

The Texans have new weapons around quarterback Deshaun Watson. Brandin Cooks was acquired in an offseason trade with the Rams and has four 1,000-yard seasons and three with 78-plus receptions on his resume. Randall Cobb came over from Dallas after averaging a career-best 15.1 yards in 2019. Johnson totaled nearly 1,400 yards from scrimmage just two years ago. 

Watson will utilize his new playmakers as he attempts to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s “Legion of Zoom” on offense. Electric downfield returnee Will Fuller will play a major role if this matchup turns into another shootout. Fuller is Watson’s favorite big-play target and has averaged over 15 yards per catch in two of the past three seasons.

How to make Chiefs vs. Texans picks

The model is leaning under the total, saying no running back accounts for more than 60 yards, and it also has generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Chiefs vs. Texans? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texans vs. Chiefs spread to jump on in the 2020 NFL Kickoff, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.


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