The Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder will match up in a winner-take-all scenario on Wednesday evening. James Harden and Russell Westbrook lead the way for the Rockets in Game 7, with Chris Paul and Danilo Gallinari at the helm for the Thunder. The Rockets enter Wednesday’s showdown averaging 111.5 points per game in the postseason, while the Thunder are averaging 104.3 points per contest. 

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET in Orlando. William Hill lists the Rockets as 5.5-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 215.5 in the latest Rockets vs. Thunder odds. Before you make any Thunder vs. Rockets picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 60-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,400 on those picks alone. It’s also a sizzling 10-2 on top-rated picks since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Rockets vs. Thunder. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Thunder vs. Rockets:

  • Rockets vs. Thunder spread: Rockets -5.5
  • Rockets vs. Thunder over-under: 215.5 points
  • Rockets vs. Thunder money line: Rockets -245, Thunder +205
  • HOU: The Rockets are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • OKC: The Thunder are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Rockets can cover

The Rockets are known for an electric offense, with Harden and Westbrook each producing impressive statistics. In this series, though, Houston has been buoyed by strong defense. The Rockets lead the NBA Playoffs in allowing only 1.01 points per possession against the Thunder, and Houston ranks in the top three in effective field goal percentage allowed and true shooting percentage allowed. 

Houston lacks size near the rim but, against a Thunder team without a dominant post scorer, the Rockets are deploying a switching defensive scheme that makes life difficult on perimeter creators. From there, Harden has been tremendous, averaging 31.8 points and 7.8 assists per game in the series.

Why the Thunder can cover 

The Thunder are a strong defensive team, and that is on full display in this series. After finishing with the No. 8 mark in the NBA in defensive rating during the regular season, Oklahoma City is holding Houston to just 1.09 points per possession through six games. While that is not a dominant number in a vacuum, it falls below the Rockets’ season-long pace and, with high-octane offense trending in Orlando, the Thunder have done an amazing job in limiting Harden and company. Some of that success comes with a top-five mark in free throw rate allowed, with Luguentz Dort serving as a valuable weapon in on-ball defense against Harden. 

Offensively, the Thunder haven’t been explosive, but Paul continues to operate an efficient group when the game is on the line. The veteran guard is averaging 21.7 points per game in the series, and he’s provided six or more assists in every game against Houston thus far. 

How to make Rockets vs. Thunder picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with Paul and Jeff Green projected to exceed their scoring averages from the regular season. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Thunder vs. Rockets? And which side of the spread cashes well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Rockets vs. Thunder spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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