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The second round of the 2020 NBA Playoffs is already underway, but one first round series remains undecided. On Tuesday evening, the Denver Nuggets and the Utah Jazz will face off in a pivotal Game 7, with both teams operating in a “win or go home” scenario. Will Barton (knee) remains sidelined for Denver, with Ed Davis (knee) and Justin Wright-Foreman (not with team) unavailable to play for Utah.

AdventHealth Arena in Orlando will host this 8:30 p.m. ET tip. William Hill lists Denver as a 1.5-point favorite in the Nuggets vs. Jazz odds. The over-under for total points scored is 218.5. Before making any Jazz vs. Nuggets picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 60-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,400 on those picks alone. It’s also a sizzling 10-2 on top-rated picks since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Jazz. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Jazz vs. Nuggets:

  • Nuggets vs. Jazz spread: Nuggets -1.5
  • Nuggets vs. Jazz over-under: 218.5 points
  • Nuggets vs. Jazz money line: Nuggets -120, Jazz +100
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • UTAH: The Jazz are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Nuggets can cover

Denver’s defensive numbers are unsightly over the course of the full series, but the Nuggets have improved in the last two games. In conjunction with a strong offense, Mike Malone’s team limited the Jazz to a more respectable 113.8 points per 100 possession in Games 5 and 6. The return of the team’s best perimeter defender, Gary Harris, helps in that endeavor in Game 7, and the Jazz also struggle in a couple of areas offensively. Utah finished as a bottom-10 team in the NBA in both turnover rate and offensive rebounding during the regular season, leaving openings for the Nuggets to take advantage defensively.

On the offensive side, Denver is enjoying massive success, scoring more than 1.2 points per possession for the series. Jamal Murray, averaging 34.0 points, 6.7 assists and 6.2 rebounds per game, is operating at a superstar level, with Nikola Jokic, averaging 25.7 points, 7.2 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game, giving the Nuggets another dynamic creator. Denver ranks fourth in the 2020 NBA Playoffs in assist-to-turnover ratio and second in offensive rebound rate, combining with high-end shotmaking to give the Nuggets a powerful overall offense. 

Why the Jazz can cover 

Though Utah hasn’t been quite as dominant in the last two games, the Jazz still boast the best offensive rating in the NBA Playoffs 2020. Utah is scoring 1.25 points per possession against Denver and, in a regular season context, that would be the league’s best mark by a wide margin. Donovan Mitchell, averaging 38.7 points and 5.5 assists per game, is leading the way in effective fashion for Utah, with Mike Conley also scoring 22.8 points per game and shooting 60.7 percent from 3-point distance. 

In addition to the team’s overall offensive output, the Jazz lead the NBA Playoffs in both effective field-goal percentage and true shooting percentage, consistently generating good looks at the basket and converting them. On the defensive end, the Jazz have been susceptible to a star breakout from Murray, but Utah is doing an adequate job at defending others near the rim. Utah can also take solace in a top-10 defense from the regular season, and the fact that the Jazz have the better point differential through the first six games.

How to make Nuggets vs. Jazz picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with Murray and Mitchell projected to exceed their regular season scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Nuggets vs. Jazz? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Jazz vs. Nuggets spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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