Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks face Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers in a pivotal Game 5 in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs on Tuesday. The Mavs list both Doncic (ankle) and Trey Burke (ankle) as probable, but the real concern lies with big man Kristaps Porzingis. After being ejected in Game 1, Porzingis (knee) averaged 29 points and 10 games in Games 2 and 3, but he was scratched from Dallas’ lineup minutes before Game 4 tipped off. He’s listed as a game-time decision for Tuesday’s action. For the Clippers, starting point guard Patrick Beverley (calf) is again unlikely to play. 

Tip-off for this 2020 NBA Playoffs matchup is 9 p.m. ET at AdventHealth in Orlando. Los Angeles is an eight-point favorite in the latest Clippers vs. Mavericks odds at William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is 235. Before making any Mavericks vs. Clippers picks, see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 59-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. It’s also 7-2 on top-rated picks since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Clippers. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Clippers vs. Mavericks:

  • Mavericks vs. Clippers spread: Clippers -8
  • Mavericks vs. Clippers over-under: 235 points
  • Mavericks vs. Clippers money line: Clippers -345, Mavericks +285
  • DAL: The Mavericks have covered just four times in the bubble, but two have come against the Clippers 
  • LAC: The Clippers are 5-2 ATS against Dallas this season 

Why the Clippers can cover

The model is well aware that the second-seeded Clippers are a much more complete team than Dallas. The Mavs have played tremendously during the Orlando restart, but Los Angeles ranks inside the top-six in point differential, rebounding rate, and both offensive and defensive efficiency. 

The defense has been solid through the first four games of this series, but Dallas has still shot the lights out. L.A. is holding the Mavs to fewer shots classified as wide open by NBA.com than they saw during the regular season, but the Mavs are knocking those shots down at a higher than normal rate. Dallas also is being forced into more shots with a defender within four feet of them, and their shooting percentage on such shots is again up from what we saw in the regular season. If the Mavs stop getting bounces in Game 5, expect the two-seed to cover easily.

Why the Mavericks can cover 

The model has also considered that Doncic has elevated his game to another level in his first taste of playoff action. He’s coming off of an unbelievable 43 point, 17 rebound, 13 assist performance in which he also hit the game-winner to keep Dallas’ playoff hopes alive even with Porzingis sidelined, and Doncic did all that while dealing with a balky ankle. He has not been bothered in the least by the defense of Leonard and Paul George, as he’s shot 50 percent when defended by those two. The Mavs’ 1.36 points per possession when one of those two is defending Doncic is way up from their season average.

Doncic’s incredible play has kept the Mavs in every game thus far, as L.A.’s largest margin of victory is eight points. He seems to elevate his game with every big moment he’s faced with, and another clutch performance could allow Dallas to easily cover the seven-point spread on Tuesday.

How to make Clippers vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting Doncic, Leonard, and Seth Curry all to finish well above their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Clippers vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Clippers spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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