James Harden and the Houston Rockets will square off against Chris Paul and the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4 on Monday in the NBA’s bubble. Following back-to-back victories by the Rockets to open the series, the Thunder emerged victorious in overtime in Game 3, setting the stage for a pivotal 2020 NBA Playoffs clash. Russell Westbrook (quad) remains out of action for the Rockets, with Luc Mbah a Moute (knee) also unavailable for Houston.

Tip-off is at 4 p.m. ET in Orlando. William Hill list Houston as the three-point favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points expected, is 219.5 in the latest Rockets vs. Thunder odds. Before making any Thunder vs. Rockets picks, see the latest NBA predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned well over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 58-32 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. Amazingly, it hasn’t missed a single top-rated pick (5-0) since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Rockets vs. Thunder. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Thunder vs. Rockets:

  • Rockets vs. Thunder spread: Rockets -3
  • Rockets vs. Thunder over-under: 219.5 points
  • Rockets vs. Thunder money line: Rockets -160, Thunder +140
  • HOU: Rockets are 6-5 against the spread in their last 11 games
  • OKC: Thunder are 6-5 against the spread in their last 11 games

Why the Rockets can cover

Harden is arguably the NBA’s top offensive player, averaging 34.3 points and 7.5 assists in the regular season. While the Thunder have done an effective job limiting his explosiveness, Harden is likely due for some better numbers, especially in the area of 3-point shooting. In fact, he’s shooting just 20.8 percent from downtown in the last two games.

Overall, the Rockets are one of the top offensive teams in the NBA, with a sky-high assist rate and a low turnover rate so far in the series (2.0 assist to turnover ratio). Houston also generates free throws at a lofty clip, and Harden is surrounded by a number of potent 3-point shooters. Houston also has a top-five defensive turnover rate in the NBA, giving the Rockets an advantage when it comes to fueling their transition offense.

Why the Thunder can cover

The Thunder have tangible strengths on both ends of the floor, and Oklahoma City’s overall upside was on full display in Game 3. Defensively, the Thunder rank in the top eight of the NBA in points allowed per possession and dominate the defensive glass, leading the entire 2020 NBA Playoffs in that area (83.9 percent).

The emergence of Luguentz Dort gives Billy Donovan a strong option to deploy against Harden. Offensively, the Thunder are strong at avoiding turnovers (No. 7 in the NBA) and producing free-throw attempts (No. 3). Both are crucial in any matchup, with enough firepower on the perimeter to threaten Houston’s switch-heavy defense.

How to make Rockets vs. Thunder picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total. In fact, it says Harden and Steven Adams will exceed their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.¬†

So who wins Rockets vs. Thunder? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Thunder vs. Rockets spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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