The fifth-seeded Miami Heat will look to complete a four-game sweep over the fourth-seeded Indiana Pacers in an Eastern Conference first-round matchup on Monday. The Heat have dominated the series so far and have won each game by nine or more points. Miami won three of four regular-season meetings against Indiana as well, with the only loss coming in the regular-season finale, 109-92. The Pacers lead the all-time regular-season series 67-50, but the Heat lead in the postseason 17-11.

Tip-off for this 2020 NBA Playoffs matchup is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET. Miami is a six-point favorites in the latest Pacers vs. Heat odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 216.5. Before making any Heat vs. Pacers picks, check out the NBA predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned well over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 58-32 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. Amazingly, it hasn’t missed a single top-rated pick (5-0) since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Pacers. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Pacers vs. Heat:

  • Pacers vs. Heat spread: Heat -6
  • Pacers vs. Heat over-under: 216.5 points
  • Pacers vs. Heat money line: Pacers +210, Heat -250
  • IND: Was 6-2 in seeding games after the restart
  • MIA: Was second in the NBA in 3-point percentage at 37.9

Why the Heat can cover

In two of Miami’s victories in the series, the Heat used a big fourth-quarter push to secure wins. On Saturday, forward Jimmy Butler poured in 27 points to lift Miami as he consistently got to the foul line, where he converted 17-of-20 free throws. He is averaging 24.3 points per game in the series, including a 28-point effort in Game 1. In that contest, he hit 10-of-12 free throws. For the season, Butler averaged 19.9 points, 6.7 rebounds and six assists, and in three regular-season games against Indiana, averaged 17.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and six assists. 

Guard Goran Dragic is also having a monster series for the Heat, and has scored 20 or more points in each game. Dragic scored 24 points in both Games 1 and 3. In Saturday’s 124-115 victory, he connected on 5-of-10 3-pointers and has hit 11-of-23, a blistering 48 percent. He is also averaging nearly six assists per game and had three steals in Game 3.

Why the Pacers can cover 

Guard Malcolm Brogdon did his best to keep the Pacers in Saturday’s game, scoring a game-high 34 points, dishing out 14 assists and grabbing seven rebounds. He is averaging 24.3 points per game in the series, along with 11 assists. Those numbers dwarf his season averages of 16.5 points and 7.1 assists per game. 

Also having a solid series for Indiana is forward T.J. Warren, who led the Pacers in scoring this season at 19.8 points. Warren scored 23 points in Saturday’s loss and has scored 20 or more in six of nine games since the restart, including a 53-point performance on Aug. 1 against Philadelphia. 

How to make Heat vs. Pacers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, calling for 220 total points. It also says one side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Pacers vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Pacers spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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