The Phoenix Suns are in a battle for their playoff survival and face another must-win situation when they take on the Miami Heat on Saturday. The Suns have the 11th-best record in the Western Conference and are 2 1/2 games behind eighth-seeded Memphis with four games to play. Phoenix has a four-game winning streak and is coming off a 114-99 win over Indiana on Thursday. The Heat were beaten by Milwaukee 130-116 despite holding a big first-half lead.

Tip-off from ESPN Wide World of Sports Arena in Orlando, Fla., is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Suns lead the all-time series 33-29, but Miami won the first meeting this season on Nov. 7 at Phoenix, 124-108. Phoenix is a two-point favorite in the latest Suns vs. Heat odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 225. Before making any Heat vs. Suns picks, check out the latest NBA predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned well over $4,200 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 54-32 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $1,900 on those picks alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Suns. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Suns vs. Heat:

  • Suns vs. Heat spread: Suns -2
  • Suns vs. Heat over-under: 225 points
  • Suns vs. Heat money line: Suns -135, Heat +115
  • PHO: Is first in NBA in free-throw percentage (83.0)
  • MIA: Is first in 3-point percentage (38.3)

Why the Heat can cover

The Heat have dominated the Suns over the past decade, winning 20 of the past 23 meetings. The Heat trail the Boston Celtics by 2 ½ games for the third seed in the Eastern Conference, and hold a one-game lead over the Indiana Pacers and Philadelphia 76ers.

Offensively, guard Jimmy Butler has been ruled out again with a sore right foot and guard Goran Dragic is questionable with an injured right ankle he suffered against Boston when he scored 20 points. Even so, Miami has plenty of firepower. Guard Duncan Robinson (13.4 points) scored 21 points, including going 5-for-9 from 3-point range, in Thursday’s loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. It was the second consecutive game where Robinson scored 21. He scored six points in the first meeting with the Suns this season.

Why the Suns can cover 

Despite that, Miami isn’t a lock to cover the Suns vs. Heat spread. That’s because the Suns are playing with a lot of urgency and can’t afford any setbacks. Phoenix has had success against the Eastern Conference this season, going 13-12, and is 15-17 as the road team in 2019-20. Guard Devin Booker leads the Suns’ offense, averaging 26.2 points, 6.6 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game. He scored 35 points in Tuesday’s win over the Los Angeles Clippers and added 20 on Thursday against Indiana. He had 22 points against Miami in the first meeting and in eight career games against the Heat is averaging 23.9 points and five assists.

Center Deandre Ayton (18.9 points and 11.7 rebounds) has also played well since returning from the shutdown. Ayton had 23 points and 10 rebounds in the win over Indiana and had 24 points and 12 boards against the Washington Wizards in the first game back. In two career games against the Heat, he is averaging 15 points and 10.5 rebounds. 

How to make Heat vs. Suns picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total as just one player for either side reaches 20 points in the simulation. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Heat vs. Suns? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Suns vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,200 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.

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