The Detroit Red Wings travel to Toronto to play the Maple Leafs at 7:05 PM on Saturday, March 29, 2014. Toronto is the favorite in this matchup, laying -1.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 5.5.
When looking at the last 23 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 16 games compared to 7 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Detroit/Toronto series is 3.7 ppg while the vistor has put up 2.3 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 1.4 favoring the home team.
As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 23 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 1.4 ppg. That represents a value number of -0.1 when meassured against the offered line of -1.5, suggesting a wager on Detroit makes the most sense – at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.
The average Total points scored spanning the last 23 games between the Red Wings and the Maple Leafs is 6 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 0.5 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 5.5 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.
Now let’s take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Detroit as the road team and with Toronto as the home team.